Prediction ledger
4,824 predictions. Each one is timestamped, hash-chained to the one before it, and refused any edit by the database. Outcomes are graded only after the horizon passes. Failures are never hidden.
| # | Target | Kind | P | Prediction | Made | Resolves | Status | Evidence / outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #59 | "rug" | narrative · 1H | 84% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 84% that "rug" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.51% → 0.58% (-94%). INCORRECT. |
| #58 | "arkum" | narrative · 1H | 84% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 84% that "arkum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.51% → 0.42% (-96%). INCORRECT. |
| #57 | "posted" | narrative · 1H | 83% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 83% that "posted" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.59% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #49 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 69% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 69% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 1.71% (-57%). INCORRECT. |
| #36 | "viewers" | narrative · 1H | 77% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 77% that "viewers" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #28 | "holy" | narrative · 1H | 69% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 69% that "holy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #27 | "oscar" | narrative · 1H | 67% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 67% that "oscar" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.18% → 1.75% (-66%). INCORRECT. |
| #26 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.28% → 4.85% (-41%). INCORRECT. |
| #25 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 44% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.16% → 12.87% (+41%). INCORRECT. |
| #19 | "steam" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "steam" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.08% (-97%). INCORRECT. |
| #18 | "correct" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "correct" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.76% (-75%). INCORRECT. |
| #17 | "answer" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "answer" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.17% (-94%). INCORRECT. |
| #11 | "chain" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 55% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.70% → 1.04% (-39%). INCORRECT. |