Ledger / Prediction #996 · narrative · 24H
Will "computer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "computer" (7 distinct creators, rank #179). Last 15m momentum 1.94×.
Made2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.6642253514579746,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5516520982838403
},
"features": {
"term": "computer",
"rank60": 179,
"share15": 0.004691689008042895,
"share60": 0.0024146812620734065,
"total15": 745,
"total60": 3105,
"momentum": 1.942984807864164,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 361,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.993515,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997297916666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5516520982838403
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.304
Log loss0.802
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0016252718324367631,
"shareRatio": 0.5142084674978508,
"totalAfter": 43685,
"shareBefore": 0.0031728709429691606,
"totalBefore": 49482,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 71,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 157
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "computer" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.16% (-49%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "computer" (24H). momentum contributed +0.66 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
458cc9f188cc2c85e51a864913e7eebc34489db84197f78a56b14deadc124bd1Previous hash
7e6d20a8c02c810a3ee6979cd8daa5472151668f9f1a92cd80bf74096b6bc121