Will "bag" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "bag" (26 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.07184687381900445,
      "diversity": -0.1571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43662334953470616
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bag",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.012734584450402145,
    "share60": 0.013683193818415968,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 0.9306733953635073,
    "diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997297916666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43662334953470616
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002151768341535996,
  "shareRatio": 0.7019007477355165,
  "totalAfter": 43685,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030718240976516714,
  "totalBefore": 49482,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 94,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 152
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity