Ledger / Prediction #99 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (44 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": 0.14285081238546396,
      "diversity": -0.048387096774193505
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.542923632371783
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.051682692307692304,
    "share60": 0.044802867383512544,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1394,
    "momentum": 1.1535576923076922,
    "diversity": 0.7096774193548387,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999369444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.542923632371783
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.295

Log loss0.783

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.039190897597977246,
  "shareRatio": 0.8812381554011371,
  "totalAfter": 1582,
  "shareBefore": 0.04447632711621234,
  "totalBefore": 1394,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 62,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.45% → 3.92% (-12%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72a5ae560566dc5f14c726792a5e1ef84da78daaa4edf611e9f287f8144d3d37

Previous hashae54f699a26d614e76e7870fa285ecf94d4671b59749dab171fff48a7f084783