Will "data" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 25% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "data" (6 distinct creators, rank #247). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -1.1385839539566651,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.2476405838566008
},
"features": {
"term": "data",
"rank60": 247,
"share15": 0.0006702412868632708,
"share60": 0.0020927237604636186,
"total15": 745,
"total60": 3105,
"momentum": 0.32027222107651065,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 361,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.993515,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.993515
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2476405838566008
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002329192546583851,
"shareRatio": 1.214978657353512,
"totalAfter": 2576,
"shareBefore": 0.0019169329073482429,
"totalBefore": 3130,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 6
}Predicted 25% that "data" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.23% (+22%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "data" (1H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "data". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
6da9ca260eab47e1bc6c2bb02cd73316cae45f7978122a095792ba6c9eb5fef514fc4d079436fa31bf13689f852a44308f2c07d6524d93ef8e336539da425440