Ledger / Prediction #986 · narrative · 1H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
78 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (27 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.
Made2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41209063713832367,
"momentum": 0.13131971385012578,
"diversity": -0.4846153846153846
},
"rawProbability": 0.4399894105413122
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.028820375335120642,
"share60": 0.02527366387636832,
"total15": 745,
"total60": 3105,
"momentum": 1.140332303068595,
"diversity": 0.34615384615384615,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 78,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 361,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.993515,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.993515
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4399894105413122
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 19:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.194
Log loss0.580
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004658385093167702,
"shareRatio": 0.19346793906903054,
"totalAfter": 2576,
"shareBefore": 0.024920127795527155,
"totalBefore": 3130,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 78
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 44% that "read" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.49% → 0.47% (-81%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "read" (1H). diversity contributed -0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f9b118599f87a065aeeac75cb0aacdb87c5b8bbc61f2c29b8918bb2d4fc74856Previous hash
bdb7e134ca9bf869241588ba869d446fbb47c1d71991cc8fb34277838d7613c9