Ledger / Prediction #982 · token · 6H

Will $QCash still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "quantum".

Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2vegpZRfFhRkCAsf9Tyd8VfgjEGEBMu7RLcw2LXua9uy",
    "name": "Quantum Cash (BTC + SOL Fork)",
    "symbol": "QCash",
    "hotTerms": [
      "quantum"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4122.239138498468,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1068,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T18:00:59.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3071.830235870291,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5198.564379900985,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4122.239138498468,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 8244.478276996935
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $QCash would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,072, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $QCash (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf2ee57dd2641b6a87c72ddd3def20dbeb0888ffbef8204549d5920639c73d021

Previous hash2e018abb1261417c31e1fb5cd8c639b6195ae86d01ecba15c70b54d4449af2e6