Ledger / Prediction #974 · narrative · 6H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2864 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (32 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.61×.

Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.49623845894847624,
      "diversity": -0.13199999999999998
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37801185241623075
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.010731319554848967,
    "share60": 0.01762652705061082,
    "total15": 1257,
    "total60": 2864,
    "momentum": 0.6088164460325206,
    "diversity": 0.64,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994269907407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37801185241623075
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.143

Log loss0.475

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0045099623047926765,
  "shareRatio": 0.48148342259447846,
  "totalAfter": 14856,
  "shareBefore": 0.009399477806788513,
  "totalBefore": 13405,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.94% → 0.45% (-52%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (6H). momentum contributed -0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2b5448f756485bb87face5b59df02e185ba72ca97607faecc7243fd86c46e948

Previous hashc22c32033919debeeb64c2a5512bac48be48e436d1e48506484306650fc9b28c