GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #965 · token · 1H

Will $STUTUTU still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "money". Creator launched 72 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "B3VdYm7dWFNukTnq4N31vYxGtwfFTcJwEPH1SZ8Fpump",
    "name": "IS THAT A SUPRA",
    "symbol": "STUTUTU",
    "hotTerms": [
      "money"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 18,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2719.7633690658076,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 72
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 807,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:23.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2374.5160461201017,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6004.163901795846,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2719.7633690658076,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5439.526738131615
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $STUTUTU would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,375, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $STUTUTU (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashccf0bc0ea5dae8bbd60a54dd88a7965dc0673fd489909f5f57e9d44f141d312b
Previous hashc046e36e334883b48a8360f678fa596f8febd23bba0dc58c051f2634399be8e4