Ledger / Prediction #965 · token · 1H
Will $STUTUTU still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 29m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "money". Creator launched 72 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
},
"features": {
"mint": "B3VdYm7dWFNukTnq4N31vYxGtwfFTcJwEPH1SZ8Fpump",
"name": "IS THAT A SUPRA",
"symbol": "STUTUTU",
"hotTerms": [
"money"
],
"ageMinutes": 29,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 18,
"marketCapAtObservation": 2719.7633690658076,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 72
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 807,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:23.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 2374.5160461201017,
"athMarketCapUsd": 6004.163901795846,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 2719.7633690658076,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 5439.526738131615
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $STUTUTU would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,375, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $STUTUTU (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ccf0bc0ea5dae8bbd60a54dd88a7965dc0673fd489909f5f57e9d44f141d312bPrevious hash
c046e36e334883b48a8360f678fa596f8febd23bba0dc58c051f2634399be8e4