GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #958 · narrative · 6H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2262 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (38 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.02×.

Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": 0.705454533395589,
      "diversity": -0.00588235294117645
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6067213514193184
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.04607843137254902,
    "share60": 0.02275740167918692,
    "total15": 509,
    "total60": 2262,
    "momentum": 2.0247667999238534,
    "diversity": 0.7450980392156863,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997547222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6067213514193184
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.155
Log loss0.500
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0296120246659815,
  "shareRatio": 1.475393767525236,
  "totalAfter": 15568,
  "shareBefore": 0.020052728289526246,
  "totalBefore": 12517,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 461,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 251
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.01% → 2.96% (+48%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (6H). momentum contributed +0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha269c810a524cc50603aec8132ee18314e92c68ff380682fbe985bcd56a3582b
Previous hashba4f00f29680635088706079e0ebb55081fadc114060c5d2b5132c1dbda4c0f3