Will "betonblack" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "betonblack" (3 distinct creators, rank #238). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.032973255033235685,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3965552154685051
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "betonblack",
    "rank60": 238,
    "share15": 0.0029182879377431907,
    "share60": 0.0028236316246741965,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 1.0335228973361268,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997190856481482
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3965552154685051
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018167952628745738,
  "shareRatio": 1.6395708434461338,
  "totalAfter": 44584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011047011169755738,
  "totalBefore": 48882,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 81,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity