Ledger / Prediction #938 · narrative · 1H

Will "checks" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "checks" (11 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -3.033289169326593,
      "diversity": -0.6130434782608696
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "checks",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0009727626459143969,
    "share60": 0.020199826238053865,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.04815698087946111,
    "diversity": 0.2391304347826087,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932580555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003477051460361613,
  "shareRatio": 0.026057609292834155,
  "totalAfter": 2876,
  "shareBefore": 0.019801980198019802,
  "totalBefore": 2323,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "checks" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.98% → 0.03% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "checks" (1H). momentum contributed -3.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb9d6a5adc46cdaa17abc8af4937cb71aae0ad4aa9e7f226a8b2eba4def1c3be6

Previous hash31f45b0cac90492cfbeded88bea2c40d4c4e4a91d75d8eae211fba01404dd780