Ledger / Prediction #928 · narrative · 6H

Will "language" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "language" (13 distinct creators, rank #57). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -2.247992508119383,
      "diversity": -0.07894736842105261
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14323429178971075
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "language",
    "rank60": 57,
    "share15": 0.0009140767824497258,
    "share60": 0.008655126498002663,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.10561102517226832,
    "diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993400925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14323429178971075
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.021

Log loss0.155

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003889285019770532,
  "shareRatio": 0.1679820533214978,
  "totalAfter": 15427,
  "shareBefore": 0.002465776719666695,
  "totalBefore": 11761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "language" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.04% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "language" (6H). momentum contributed -2.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbcaccf815ee70fc8c821dbfa4516704f5bfef0393399856bdc7436b8f8e801ea

Previous hash84fcb46aa4e0e30e4511f24cf54d3ce500fe71096bb5ff9a0d9b1ea0861739b2