Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (33 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.94×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.06405716290184665,
      "diversity": -0.10799999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45545130085640206
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.02102376599634369,
    "share60": 0.022414558366622282,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.9379513819754918,
    "diversity": 0.66,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993400925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45545130085640206
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014325533156154794,
  "shareRatio": 0.7555578949688501,
  "totalAfter": 15427,
  "shareBefore": 0.018960972706402516,
  "totalBefore": 11761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 221,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 223
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity