GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #924 · narrative · 1H

Will "brain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "brain" (7 distinct creators, rank #191). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2924810630919468,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22408627036257875
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "brain",
    "rank60": 191,
    "share15": 0.0009140767824497258,
    "share60": 0.003328894806924101,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.2745886654478976,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960405555555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22408627036257875
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.602
Log loss1.496
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.003964757709251102,
  "shareRatio": 1.2633201232937032,
  "totalAfter": 2270,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030918727915194345,
  "totalBefore": 2264,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "brain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.40% (+28%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "brain" (1H). momentum contributed -1.29 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "brain". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcf423d01fddef9c4036a55fbe64b4595c4d62d38f4205f3cb09f3e33a8b2a7d2
Previous hash84df9f750cc6aadc07eeef952447ad299b6634e3c3179a06dfb901a3fd08c559