Will "posted" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "posted" (19 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -0.5718725296912193,
      "diversity": -0.46153846153846156
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3450046909058548
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "posted",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.012404580152671756,
    "share60": 0.021975722059439096,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 0.5644674663758633,
    "diversity": 0.36538461538461536,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999509143518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3450046909058548
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00201364805906701,
  "shareRatio": 0.5896043379634474,
  "totalAfter": 44695,
  "shareBefore": 0.00342402934882299,
  "totalBefore": 49065,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 90,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 168
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity