Ledger / Prediction #909 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
184 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (102 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.41×.
Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5408246767762328,
"momentum": -0.8971506195692798,
"diversity": -0.23478260869565215
},
"rawProbability": 0.3287650228038393
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.03148854961832061,
"share60": 0.07722896609460025,
"total15": 523,
"total60": 2388,
"momentum": 0.4077297834047042,
"diversity": 0.5543478260869565,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 184,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 102
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 343,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998036574074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3287650228038393
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.108
Log loss0.399
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.026303854875283448,
"shareRatio": 0.8067207138894349,
"totalAfter": 15435,
"shareBefore": 0.03260297984224365,
"totalBefore": 11410,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 406,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 372
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 33% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.26% → 2.63% (-19%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed -0.90 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
bb3495925399e3c40ae8add5cb5983281cd195453bdfdee65a4a2a5ddca30cdbPrevious hash
cbf6786284ae6c071354145e898624439040fd632f8d8919ee31822852a38991