Ledger / Prediction #898 · narrative · 24H
Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 28% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.
Made2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": -1.140542222109388,
"diversity": -0.5516129032258064
},
"rawProbability": 0.2774290627925474
},
"features": {
"term": "call",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.007666098807495741,
"share60": 0.023983115886415964,
"total15": 586,
"total60": 2605,
"momentum": 0.3196456558773424,
"diversity": 0.2903225806451613,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 336,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997296527777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2774290627925474
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.522
Log loss1.282
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008302459492032318,
"shareRatio": 1.5473672148934667,
"totalAfter": 44806,
"shareBefore": 0.005362583790371724,
"totalBefore": 49230,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 372,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 264
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 28% that "call" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 0.83% (+55%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "call" (24H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5e6266a1694b2c1b9d58cefa7083216c127745c1625e27ff6230d873a29e6276Previous hash
bd804a0851000d3fabda2c2ae757945ada3234514d406cf4698921e702c48cc6