GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #895 · narrative · 6H

Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": -1.140542222109388,
      "diversity": -0.5516129032258064
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22790997382437345
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "call",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.007666098807495741,
    "share60": 0.023983115886415964,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.3196456558773424,
    "diversity": 0.2903225806451613,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989186111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22790997382437345
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.596
Log loss1.479
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01441839319347925,
  "shareRatio": 1.4704300576470821,
  "totalAfter": 15397,
  "shareBefore": 0.009782608695652175,
  "totalBefore": 11040,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 222,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 108
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "call" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 1.44% (+47%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "call" (6H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "call". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash776a9e26ed8d937d6ae302bf27d4cc57c9eacfd94427a426f2b59256675d7b92
Previous hash249007ba13f654fa840c2feaace82c80e85f201cb21cbe8431a91240462ec7d8