Ledger / Prediction #885 · token · 1H

Will $Altai still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "altai". Creator launched 97 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5BMKG81P57xwi4d3cJxJ5FRV6rd1k5uG1WkcPdEPZLUY",
    "name": "Altai the Tiger",
    "symbol": "Altai",
    "hotTerms": [
      "altai",
      "tiger"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3083.5787023413154,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 97
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 855,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3083.5787023413154,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3083.5787023413154,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6167.157404682631
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $Altai would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,084, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Altai (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaecc6a44ca45251ae0c16e2d82989e29a30d4d2908af7356b67cb2404c02373f

Previous hashf05523b5ca8cc26a6b75301f08a1f80d0987e4d48f7c63783674d64baee78482