Will "man" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "man" (35 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -0.5435878987590601,
      "diversity": -0.3878048780487805
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3644965835264749
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "man",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.020454545454545454,
    "share60": 0.03522630230572161,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 0.5806611570247934,
    "diversity": 0.4268292682926829,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998232407407407
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3644965835264749
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003612428527104295,
  "shareRatio": 0.6575352078318032,
  "totalAfter": 45122,
  "shareBefore": 0.005500550055005501,
  "totalBefore": 49086,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 163,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 270
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity