Ledger / Prediction #878 · narrative · 6H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
75 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (11 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 2.14×.
Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4062075301653315,
"momentum": 0.760100378839117,
"diversity": -0.7239999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.5024038655543157
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.06893939393939394,
"share60": 0.03223740392826644,
"total15": 659,
"total60": 2341,
"momentum": 2.138490868954445,
"diversity": 0.14666666666666667,
"launches15": 45,
"launches60": 75,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 11
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999292962962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5024038655543157
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.252
Log loss0.698
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.009453984179046884,
"shareRatio": 0.5813392981965608,
"totalAfter": 15549,
"shareBefore": 0.016270929902563618,
"totalBefore": 10571,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 147,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 172
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.63% → 0.95% (-42%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "read" (6H). momentum contributed +0.76 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
749c65d1f4982574acefd9b58c360e5206a5012584da6d2713c893ebc8974cd4Previous hash
1e21f3ad9323ed1971ba14521c40ef5e47f449ffc7a6163a732a37f07b5c71d3