Ledger / Prediction #877 · narrative · 6H

Will "man" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "man" (35 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -0.5435878987590601,
      "diversity": -0.3878048780487805
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3411304959429668
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "man",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.020454545454545454,
    "share60": 0.03522630230572161,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 0.5806611570247934,
    "diversity": 0.4268292682926829,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999292962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3411304959429668
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.116

Log loss0.417

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00591677921409737,
  "shareRatio": 0.6018000276927337,
  "totalAfter": 15549,
  "shareBefore": 0.009838236685271024,
  "totalBefore": 10571,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "man" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 0.59% (-40%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "man" (6H). momentum contributed -0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1e21f3ad9323ed1971ba14521c40ef5e47f449ffc7a6163a732a37f07b5c71d3

Previous hash0ae37ecca76c342ddae2b3a4b82cbb9bcd30a2dedb5849dd911ce5dc1dd9c183