GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #875 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": -0.21402619022888847,
      "diversity": -0.7978723404255319
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29487573899335845
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03257575757575758,
    "share60": 0.04035012809564475,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 0.807327240660574,
    "diversity": 0.0851063829787234,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957577777777777
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29487573899335845
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.497
Log loss1.221
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.04218880534670008,
  "shareRatio": 1.0525477460759298,
  "totalAfter": 2394,
  "shareBefore": 0.040068201193520885,
  "totalBefore": 2346,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 101,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 94
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 4.22% (+5%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashabed7167da61c3b05cc5346eb308b3f3b70bfb6b029199f069a08982ae4d4006
Previous hash7203363f5d4fd2e7a149d98df4436bd46f4b307a4a087f76dd16ffab4505e573