Will "massimo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

120 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "massimo" (13 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47670807455219183,
      "momentum": 0.0992118891828468,
      "diversity": -0.7699999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37893288748162635
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "massimo",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.056818181818181816,
    "share60": 0.051451750640478223,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 1.1043002640513013,
    "diversity": 0.10833333333333334,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 120,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957577777777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37893288748162635
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.08563074352548036,
  "shareRatio": 1.6712151006159095,
  "totalAfter": 2394,
  "shareBefore": 0.05115089514066496,
  "totalBefore": 2346,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 205,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 120
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity