Ledger / Prediction #871 · token · 1H

Will $Altai still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "altai". Creator launched 73 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "613Muva5hQB91kvP8PUEai55JkbXYVFgPoagjdBcCg4B",
    "name": "CASHBACKKK",
    "symbol": "Altai",
    "hotTerms": [
      "altai"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 8,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3083.6121816499663,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 73
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 664,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3083.6121816499663,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3083.6121816499663,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6167.2243632999325
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $Altai would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,084, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Altai (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash495edc7b321222f44ac056c1d347c08049195663656bd9de416ba24db99cfe15

Previous hash246454b2caea8b51d08e57eb108eaf18d18d8672a77dba6eb19c668ebbb35ec9