Will "tschuna" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

76 of 1955 launches in the last hour referenced "tschuna" (50 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4081943141778346,
      "momentum": -0.7043679530081854,
      "diversity": -0.11052631578947363
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3767537352589141
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tschuna",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.019337016574585635,
    "share60": 0.039110429447852764,
    "total15": 542,
    "total60": 1955,
    "momentum": 0.49442097280901304,
    "diversity": 0.6578947368421053,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 76,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999374652777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3767537352589141
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024005638021406864,
  "shareRatio": 1.5435319854371596,
  "totalAfter": 45406,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015521607711788254,
  "totalBefore": 48964,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 109,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity