Will "tiger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 1955 launches in the last hour referenced "tiger" (64 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": -0.028373851674489393,
      "diversity": -0.08297872340425534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4825341514794488
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiger",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04696132596685083,
    "share60": 0.04831288343558282,
    "total15": 542,
    "total60": 1955,
    "momentum": 0.9720249057265632,
    "diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 64
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997498611111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4825341514794488
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025241847651995643,
  "shareRatio": 2.6118161932864874,
  "totalAfter": 15609,
  "shareBefore": 0.009626955475330927,
  "totalBefore": 9972,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 394,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity