Ledger / Prediction #859 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
87 of 1955 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (16 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.91×.
Made2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42847053093307247,
"momentum": 0.6493610498905692,
"diversity": -0.6793103448275862
},
"rawProbability": 0.5246104056122753
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.0856353591160221,
"share60": 0.044734151329243355,
"total15": 542,
"total60": 1955,
"momentum": 1.9143172849250198,
"diversity": 0.1839080459770115,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 87,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 16
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 292,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984991666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984991666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5246104056122753
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.226
Log loss0.645
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.08212927756653993,
"shareRatio": 1.8441939512407015,
"totalAfter": 2630,
"shareBefore": 0.044387755102040814,
"totalBefore": 1960,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 216,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 87
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.44% → 8.21% (+85%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
70df187f1e29b302944a7df972d4deb498c7176034599d2895e0195fa54eb555Previous hash
22c31d952a1cae3ab56016375bd26d8ee1735635dc5b76e8a3331fa4f606af92