GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #857 · narrative · 1H

Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

97 of 1955 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (58 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.

Made2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44479095991039236,
      "momentum": 0.49718434182922033,
      "diversity": -0.18247422680412373
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6128958105742579
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "altai",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.08195211786372007,
    "share60": 0.04984662576687116,
    "total15": 542,
    "total60": 1955,
    "momentum": 1.6440855645275536,
    "diversity": 0.5979381443298969,
    "launches15": 44,
    "launches60": 97,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984991666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6128958105742579
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.150
Log loss0.490
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.057034220532319393,
  "shareRatio": 1.1505053162977907,
  "totalAfter": 2630,
  "shareBefore": 0.049489795918367344,
  "totalBefore": 1960,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 150,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "altai" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.95% → 5.70% (+15%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "altai" (1H). momentum contributed +0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha0fec0a086dc855f56e94891cef1628124d983804e151495d0fe00d45975ff74
Previous hash387697bbac49d49fdacf24ceb1b085443d46719caf6f52af7c938235ad252cd8