Ledger / Prediction #857 · narrative · 1H
Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
97 of 1955 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (58 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.
Made2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.44479095991039236,
"momentum": 0.49718434182922033,
"diversity": -0.18247422680412373
},
"rawProbability": 0.6128958105742579
},
"features": {
"term": "altai",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.08195211786372007,
"share60": 0.04984662576687116,
"total15": 542,
"total60": 1955,
"momentum": 1.6440855645275536,
"diversity": 0.5979381443298969,
"launches15": 44,
"launches60": 97,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 58
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 292,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984991666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984991666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6128958105742579
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.150
Log loss0.490
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.057034220532319393,
"shareRatio": 1.1505053162977907,
"totalAfter": 2630,
"shareBefore": 0.049489795918367344,
"totalBefore": 1960,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 150,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 97
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "altai" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.95% → 5.70% (+15%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "altai" (1H). momentum contributed +0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a0fec0a086dc855f56e94891cef1628124d983804e151495d0fe00d45975ff74Previous hash
387697bbac49d49fdacf24ceb1b085443d46719caf6f52af7c938235ad252cd8