Ledger / Prediction #854 · token · 6H
Will $STUTUTU still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 25m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "money". Creator launched 68 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
},
"features": {
"mint": "9mVMQGipoZWERbJMDcvpztWSdphPDEMS3uQQcJWpump",
"name": "IS THAT A SUPRA",
"symbol": "STUTUTU",
"hotTerms": [
"money"
],
"ageMinutes": 25,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 18,
"marketCapAtObservation": 4489.549603581492,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 68
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 589,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:56.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 6219.758808068231,
"athMarketCapUsd": 8983.083339225903,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 4489.549603581492,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 8979.099207162984
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $STUTUTU would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $6,220, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $STUTUTU (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a31f57b038447f40ef86f57f91e4a78b4e1f6c54b71a9dbfb1e2f3e5e8a135fdPrevious hash
7486649698ff8f084dc6625eca22c0ba2ad366251338579364b17a33773a0275