Will "desk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "desk" (13 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -3.2532364720438083,
      "diversity": -0.575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461072673826617
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "desk",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.0010548523206751054,
    "share60": 0.027293190770962296,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 0.03864891904824046,
    "diversity": 0.2708333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996961921296297
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11461072673826617
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012266982103349324,
  "shareRatio": 0.5299191491201521,
  "totalAfter": 45651,
  "shareBefore": 0.002325344212136665,
  "totalBefore": 49025,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 56,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity