Ledger / Prediction #846 · narrative · 6H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

99 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (19 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.

Made2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4478522906550734,
      "momentum": 0.5820465733356233,
      "diversity": -0.6696969696969697
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4880376146873663
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.10021097046413502,
    "share60": 0.055993247045582444,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 1.7896974323092254,
    "diversity": 0.1919191919191919,
    "launches15": 47,
    "launches60": 99,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987847685185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4880376146873663
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010653689333157964,
  "shareRatio": 0.5780055815208106,
  "totalAfter": 15206,
  "shareBefore": 0.018437041692855646,
  "totalBefore": 9546,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 162,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 176
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "agent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.84% → 1.07% (-42%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "agent" (6H). diversity contributed -0.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf0527b2a333c0b2c97483558d84a56aaa82eb02e45437fc33fd36d9a90703501

Previous hash0a8166963c79fdd9fcb7f706660933a5aa0d6df877f4be2cd99aea159c8c654d