Ledger / Prediction #844 · narrative · 1H

Will "concept" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "concept" (3 distinct creators, rank #237). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0764207663387957,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17416084382671843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "concept",
    "rank60": 237,
    "share15": 0.0010548523206751054,
    "share60": 0.0030951041080472708,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 0.34081319524357495,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927086111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17416084382671843
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.682

Log loss1.748

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004262574595055414,
  "shareRatio": 1.4519502653290468,
  "totalAfter": 2346,
  "shareBefore": 0.002802690582959641,
  "totalBefore": 1784,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "concept" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.43% (+52%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "concept" (1H). momentum contributed -1.08 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "concept". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7753fa1eee53ba48daaff936b708ebe3852de30b930afe1810ef23061c715599

Previous hash3b443aa865c8f02eefc43b5885b34f6f3951505e12c85fed3f0a9b69cbf14423