Will "tiktok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

112 of 1712 launches in the last hour referenced "tiktok" (3 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4663591438291491,
      "momentum": -3.983814059923102,
      "diversity": -0.8678571428571428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07637462599788361
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiktok",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0012224938875305623,
    "share60": 0.06567425569176882,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1712,
    "momentum": 0.018614506927465364,
    "diversity": 0.026785714285714284,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 112,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 204,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957733333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998238888888888
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07637462599788361
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028558348411850624,
  "shareRatio": 0.45898456220348743,
  "totalAfter": 45871,
  "shareBefore": 0.006235654946885219,
  "totalBefore": 49233,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 131,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 307
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity