Ledger / Prediction #827 · narrative · 1H
Will "send" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
115 of 1712 launches in the last hour referenced "send" (6 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.
Made2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.47032413238937243,
"momentum": -2.9115190795723658,
"diversity": -0.837391304347826
},
"rawProbability": 0.05
},
"features": {
"term": "send",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.003667481662591687,
"share60": 0.06742556917688267,
"total15": 408,
"total60": 1712,
"momentum": 0.05439303972311307,
"diversity": 0.05217391304347826,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 115,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 204,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957733333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957733333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.05
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.003
Log loss0.051
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03571428571428571,
"shareRatio": 0.5338185526864773,
"totalAfter": 1960,
"shareBefore": 0.06709451575262544,
"totalBefore": 1714,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 70,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 115
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 5% that "send" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.71% → 3.57% (-47%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "send" (1H). momentum contributed -2.91 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
cae5884fa41b40bcc97668da8117faeee47a14902416c71715f29f3e07d1d350Previous hash
69e2a61a9f115d44dfc1d1c5fc4f34c957f9dddb3037468bf286abbfa9f20170