GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #820 · narrative · 24H

Will "across" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "across" (6 distinct creators, rank #32). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -0.04333321512801402,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38329246903376446
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "across",
    "rank60": 32,
    "share15": 0.01053864168618267,
    "share60": 0.011005353955978583,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1680,
    "momentum": 0.9575922526742199,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 212,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999951087962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38329246903376446
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.147
Log loss0.483
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.003131455909535718,
  "shareRatio": 0.8728934648205854,
  "totalAfter": 45985,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035897539903056363,
  "totalBefore": 49307,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 144,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 177
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "across" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.31% (-13%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "across" (24H). diversity contributed -0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3cb7a06d0a961ce59f504a8299a0a1c554387a2e35067bc73ea7151ef2821129
Previous hashb7e98549dfc3a08ae0765f2bddb0be13462a31a8b69c0dc38022cb5772521e5c