Ledger / Prediction #819 · narrative · 24H
Will "send" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
37 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "send" (7 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 3.31×.
Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3002220000315186,
"momentum": 1.196006733035213,
"diversity": -0.6729729729729729
},
"rawProbability": 0.5278780275162728
},
"features": {
"term": "send",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.07377049180327869,
"share60": 0.022308149910767402,
"total15": 426,
"total60": 1680,
"momentum": 3.306885245901639,
"diversity": 0.1891891891891892,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 37,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 212,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999951087962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5278780275162728
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.223
Log loss0.639
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006523866478199413,
"shareRatio": 1.195576745265781,
"totalAfter": 45985,
"shareBefore": 0.00545561482142495,
"totalBefore": 49307,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 300,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 269
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "send" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.65% (+20%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "send" (24H). momentum contributed +1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b7e98549dfc3a08ae0765f2bddb0be13462a31a8b69c0dc38022cb5772521e5cPrevious hash
b7aed825aa402fabd5d4a2ace260fe0977d9d64b2f5acdd109ccc300495517c4