Ledger / Prediction #816 · narrative · 6H
Will "born" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "born" (5 distinct creators, rank #198). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.
Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.5819027598157209,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5786738862409858
},
"features": {
"term": "born",
"rank60": 198,
"share15": 0.00585480093676815,
"share60": 0.003271861986912552,
"total15": 426,
"total60": 1680,
"momentum": 1.7894400681285927,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 212,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998043518518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5786738862409858
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.335
Log loss0.864
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00514675198219502,
"shareRatio": 0.657604001895988,
"totalAfter": 14378,
"shareBefore": 0.007823851570358779,
"totalBefore": 8947,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 74,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 70
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "born" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.51% (-34%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "born" (6H). momentum contributed +0.58 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
cf3b03e5b9c3449613db13273cd6cb750f9b02014a862a40e04f90d5ee01b979Previous hash
d251a5d4c5f294e216981c1d37a3526c0814e31b422e6fbbfceaac70d64d306f