Ledger / Prediction #810 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepper" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "pepper" (34 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.65×.

Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.2955589070972926,
      "diversity": -0.1581818181818182
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7680016068503351
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepper",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.12060889929742388,
    "share60": 0.03301606186793575,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1680,
    "momentum": 3.6530371120535055,
    "diversity": 0.6181818181818182,
    "launches15": 51,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 212,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988261111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7680016068503351
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.590

Log loss1.461

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02242152466367713,
  "shareRatio": 0.6880308880308881,
  "totalAfter": 1784,
  "shareBefore": 0.032699167657550536,
  "totalBefore": 1682,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 40,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "pepper" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.27% → 2.24% (-31%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pepper" (1H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "pepper". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf90a50cf62aa18cf0a18f6414978ac2e92d539ff1b53c5c56f4e14a7aca5cddb

Previous hash00ffd95d2f39c87f9e3f03f7c275864e0779a9ed86c1049162b51bf09465ba2a