Ledger / Prediction #809 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 39% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (12 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.
Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 0.1286469878712082,
"diversity": -0.6850746268656717
},
"rawProbability": 0.3852935245491031
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04566744730679157,
"share60": 0.04015466983938132,
"total15": 426,
"total60": 1680,
"momentum": 1.137288576632839,
"diversity": 0.1791044776119403,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 12
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 212,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988261111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3852935245491031
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.378
Log loss0.954
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.07511210762331838,
"shareRatio": 1.8787301587301586,
"totalAfter": 1784,
"shareBefore": 0.03983353151010702,
"totalBefore": 1682,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 134,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 39% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.98% → 7.51% (+89%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.69 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
00ffd95d2f39c87f9e3f03f7c275864e0779a9ed86c1049162b51bf09465ba2aPrevious hash
a1b0d54a69278ae43282417239771e330c86c9628d8fcdc4b3da4de06db7634d