Will "represents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
30 of 1668 launches in the last hour referenced "represents" (9 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2687639203842082,
"momentum": -0.27188443261422757,
"diversity": -0.54
},
"rawProbability": 0.3362201569171392
},
"features": {
"term": "represents",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.013924050632911392,
"share60": 0.018274415817855005,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1668,
"momentum": 0.7619423116829217,
"diversity": 0.3,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 30,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 246,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935311111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989218518518519
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3362201569171392
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0020761741122565865,
"shareRatio": 0.17034691365640772,
"totalAfter": 13968,
"shareBefore": 0.012341446691806651,
"totalBefore": 8751,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 108
}Predicted 34% that "represents" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.23% → 0.21% (-83%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "represents" (6H). diversity contributed -0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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