GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #795 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1668 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (43 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-10 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.43182697042845336,
      "diversity": 0.07358490566037741
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6363460929838615
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.049367088607594936,
    "share60": 0.032055122828040745,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1668,
    "momentum": 1.5400686146930083,
    "diversity": 0.8113207547169812,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935311111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935311111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6363460929838615
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.405
Log loss1.011
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.012835472578763127,
  "shareRatio": 0.4119778752622545,
  "totalAfter": 1714,
  "shareBefore": 0.03156640857653365,
  "totalBefore": 1679,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.16% → 1.28% (-59%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb0a729d45721565a85e352b3ca6da1e6dcf290aa6d5cd8dd1d64b2b5fe393e3e
Previous hash139436e238ebd30c53c255853abdff654471ebf2967e18b58825650c98b4b641