Ledger / Prediction #795 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
53 of 1668 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (43 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.
Made2026-10-10 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3541281001677032,
"momentum": 0.43182697042845336,
"diversity": 0.07358490566037741
},
"rawProbability": 0.6363460929838615
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.049367088607594936,
"share60": 0.032055122828040745,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1668,
"momentum": 1.5400686146930083,
"diversity": 0.8113207547169812,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 53,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 43
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 246,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935311111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935311111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6363460929838615
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.405
Log loss1.011
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.012835472578763127,
"shareRatio": 0.4119778752622545,
"totalAfter": 1714,
"shareBefore": 0.03156640857653365,
"totalBefore": 1679,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 22,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 53
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.16% → 1.28% (-59%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b0a729d45721565a85e352b3ca6da1e6dcf290aa6d5cd8dd1d64b2b5fe393e3ePrevious hash
139436e238ebd30c53c255853abdff654471ebf2967e18b58825650c98b4b641