Ledger / Prediction #779 · narrative · 1H

Will "putin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "putin" (19 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -1.8665182127932431,
      "diversity": -0.33
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10114178336954809
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "putin",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.003937007874015748,
    "share60": 0.02545568824638592,
    "total15": 380,
    "total60": 1590,
    "momentum": 0.1546612229026927,
    "diversity": 0.475,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968711111111112
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10114178336954809
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.107

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005945303210463733,
  "shareRatio": 0.035144473052969784,
  "totalAfter": 1682,
  "shareBefore": 0.02506265664160401,
  "totalBefore": 1596,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "putin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.51% → 0.06% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "putin" (1H). momentum contributed -1.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9238bfb3d0b5c1c0f742339229621ed9959cc93f5fe9481a0e614547145c5aaa

Previous hash29e835e302dbaeddd9a6a6f57316dc5f2c42e4c0b6040ba25e9f0b517d5ed708