Ledger / Prediction #777 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
83 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.
Made2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42141040430437465,
"momentum": 0.38886228470005035,
"diversity": -0.7843373493975904
},
"rawProbability": 0.43190950026129976
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.07742782152230972,
"share60": 0.05248271527341295,
"total15": 380,
"total60": 1590,
"momentum": 1.4753013657723923,
"diversity": 0.0963855421686747,
"launches15": 29,
"launches60": 83,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968711111111112
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.43190950026129976
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.323
Log loss0.840
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.07074910820451843,
"shareRatio": 1.3580076922803235,
"totalAfter": 1682,
"shareBefore": 0.05200501253132832,
"totalBefore": 1596,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 119,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 43% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.20% → 7.07% (+36%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
748bdf189e0539200872590ff186ffcc613fe6949c3d67684ddacf56a1441e82Previous hash
df94695c3298d027f6f1b5f5e4028864cfd728e86c0236765b35ece7ba25641c