Ledger / Prediction #776 · token · 6H

Will $GHOST still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link. Rides hot term "ghost". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CpR3QsDdRgJnyhUSTFhEq5AV5pFkRG2h8w9coFXZpump",
    "name": "dev post CA",
    "symbol": "GHOST",
    "hotTerms": [
      "ghost"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 11,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3062.8022454351967,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 451,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:38.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3062.8022454351967,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3062.8022454351967,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3062.8022454351967,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6125.604490870393
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $GHOST would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,063, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $GHOST (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdf94695c3298d027f6f1b5f5e4028864cfd728e86c0236765b35ece7ba25641c

Previous hash719cfd7019227df4a4a7be6409cc34ff650263b344e87b32fcbd5fc3d5bfecc2