Will "golden" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "golden" (7 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.2557393658048645,
      "diversity": -0.6199999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4139285449484435
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "golden",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.026381909547738693,
    "share60": 0.02042866711319491,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 1.2914160968778319,
    "diversity": 0.23333333333333334,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996710648148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4139285449484435
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038049117952265654,
  "shareRatio": 0.8084415165082486,
  "totalAfter": 46256,
  "shareBefore": 0.004709734799482536,
  "totalBefore": 49472,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 176,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 233
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity