Will "around" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "around" (7 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.41×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.3467111440105911,
      "diversity": -0.6199999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4247833556866625
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "around",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.028894472361809045,
    "share60": 0.02042866711319491,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 1.414408106104292,
    "diversity": 0.23333333333333334,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986842592592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4247833556866625
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006391307821362946,
  "shareRatio": 0.5698678227676469,
  "totalAfter": 12517,
  "shareBefore": 0.011224987798926306,
  "totalBefore": 8196,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 80,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity