Will "discovered" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
21 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "discovered" (21 distinct creators, rank #36). Last 15m momentum 1.13×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.21526267879339842,
"momentum": 0.12584003402272703,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5844583601697059
},
"features": {
"term": "discovered",
"rank60": 36,
"share15": 0.016331658291457288,
"share60": 0.014400535833891493,
"total15": 397,
"total60": 1492,
"momentum": 1.1341007362393363,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 21,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921055555555556
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5844583601697059
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.008933889219773675,
"shareRatio": 0.6212301587301587,
"totalAfter": 1679,
"shareBefore": 0.01453104359313078,
"totalBefore": 1514,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 15,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 22
}Predicted 58% that "discovered" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.45% → 0.89% (-39%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "discovered" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
e27a552b8d2dce64660baef3d214e683c622a41f2e1faa38c978b8883d24c4eac820dfc5b9e945903c8bccb6a40b8cbd051fc3564262e5c289215aa4679919be