Will "argon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "argon" (23 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.6965270275044135,
      "diversity": -0.009677419354838701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18001276226862198
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "argon",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0013227513227513227,
    "share60": 0.019613947696139476,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 0.06743932140757537,
    "diversity": 0.7419354838709677,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998229398148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18001276226862198
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00010804503316982519,
  "shareRatio": 0.156814613135111,
  "totalAfter": 46277,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007477919925625013,
  "totalBefore": 49479,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity